LB Cardinals Report 4/15-6/4

Ladies. I know you missed the hot logo. The LBCR is back for its first installment of the 2010 season. Here she blows.

We are 1/3 through the 2010 season and things are just about as expected. Sure there are some scrubs still hanging around in the standings (pun intended), but that’s to be expected at this point in the season. Usually it’s not until July that the playoff caliber teams really start to separate from the pack.  That said, I’ve had the honor/pleasure/horror of watching all but six Birds games this young season, and I’ve got some bones to pick and some praises to sing. In no particular order.

Freese => Has been unbelievable. Basically carried the offense on his shoulders for most of the first 1/4 season. Literally without his clutch RISP numbers, the Birds would have 4-5 less wins. And can you say future Gold Glover? I can.

Pujols => Interesting season so far. He’s looked terrible with RISP, but otherwise has been MVP caliber. Since fisting the Cubs at Wrigley last weekend, he’s really picked up his game. I expect the remainder of the season to look something like this. Walk, Walk, Walk, HR, Walk, Walk, Double Play, HR, HR, Walk, K, Walk, HR, K, Double Play… you get the idea. Easily the runaway MVP favorite still.

Ryan => Ack. This guy spent the first 1/4 of the season having an Ankiel-esque meltdown both at the plate and in the field, totally eliminating any pre-season hopes of repeating that .300 average and pushing him over the top into Gold Glove territory. That said, we all know what he’s capable of, and the past few weeks, he’s really shown signs of progress. Too bad for him Lopez is playing well right now, because his leash is short and he’s fighting for playing time.

Skip => Double Ack. Better at the plate than Ryan, but still a far cry from what TLR expected coming into the season. That combined with his league leading 73 errors and Cardinals fans are understandably concerned about the 2nd base situation.

Franklin => Same ol’ shit, just a different day. Solid so far, but has shown signs of hitability. He, McClellan, and Motte all give up way too many fly balls for my liking. Which brings us to…

The overachieving bullpen => First in the NL? You don’t say. Honestly, you wouldn’t know it sometimes, but these guys have come up big most of the season so far. The Lefties have been great, and even Motte is somehow managing to get that 97 mph 4-seamer past even elite hitters. Motte must have got some raising action on that fastball in the off-season, because last year, he’d get lit up pitching the high heat too often. Reyes has been great too, but let’s be honest, the starting rotation has generally taken care of business enough to make it easy on these guys (with the exception of the now injured Lohse). Speaking of the starting rotation…

Carp & Waino => Another year they may split Cy Young votes. But I think this year – from what I’ve seen so far – Waino will separate himself a bit. Carp is still a dominator, but he’s definitely losing command of the strike zone waaaaay more often that I’m used to seeing. Maybe he’ll work into his own as the season moves on, but he’s definitely not the best pitcher on the team right now. I was thinking about Penny’s injury… honestly, part of me is happy. I mean, he was lights out until he got hurt – but his injury isn’t arm related. I’m wondering if keeping him out of the rotation for a month or so is going to ensure he can totally dominate in October (there were some legitimate concerns about his season stamina coming into this season). Garcia on the other hand, is showing signs of “I’m young, not used to pitching this much, and I’ll probably suck by September.” I could be being paranoid there. Hard to say.

Ludwick => Give him a Gold Glove. Now. Also very glad to see his bat has some 2008 pop in it after a “meh” 2009 season. Should be an All-Star again if the voters aren’t total jackoffs.

Stav => I love this guy. The next Matt Stairs?

Rasmus => As expected. He needs to work on putting the ball in play just a bit more often, and then I’ll put up with his ten thousand strikeouts. Defensively he’s been something of a let down. Or maybe he just makes everything look too easy. But I’m still waiting for some Edmonds-esque highlights out of Center Field this year.

Molina => Newsflash: everyone in the league knows he is trying to slap an outside pitch to right field. Everyone. He’s going to have to learn to turn on the ball, because time after time he hits it right into the defense. Still the NL’s best behind the plate, though. All Star.

Holliday => Love/Hate. Amazingly, his overall numbers are good. Better than usual through May, actually. But I don’t know how he does it. He seemingly cannot protect Pujols 9/10 times. The law of averages dictates that success with RISP can’t be much different than overall AVG by the end of the season. I hope that’s true. Sometimes when he swings I wonder if he even knows what he’s doing up there. More than anyone else on the roster, Holliday is the guy that’s going to give me ulcers by year’s end.

So what does it all mean, you ask? Being the “glass is half full” kinda guy that I am, I think it means World Series. Proven Cardinals hitters have a history of righting the ship before crunch time if they get off to slow starts. That’s just how it’s done in StL. I can’t remember the last position player to have a Soriano-esque season in StL. Just doesn’t happen. The only real question is whether our pitching can hold up and stay healthy. And by “hold up,” I mean “improve and stay that way.” I know on paper our pitching has been excellent, but there have been a lot of narrow escapes for the staff already this year, and luck ain’t gonna cut it in October.

LB

Night / Day

These images speak for themselves. Enjoy.

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UPDATE: Found this on the interwebs. I thought it would be a good follow-up to this post.

An excerpt from a piece on MLB.com by Dave Feldman

I should have seen this coming. It was far too obvious. There’s been a steady mathematical equation used by the Cardinals the past decade or so that has pumped out the same results. It looks something like this:

Talented pitcher + previous injury and/or control problems + Dagoba sessions with pitching coach Dave Duncan = A guy you should always draft.

And while Brad Penny will undoubtedly get his just desserts here soon, for now, I’m talking about Jaime Garcia. Improving to 3-0 on Wednesday after spinning seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts in a 6-0 win over the Braves, Garcia, a 23-year-old rookie southpaw who entered the season with just 16 innings of Major League experience, sports a 1.04 ERA to go with a 0.96 WHIP. This all coming from a guy who lost most of last season to Tommy John surgery. While his 17-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t stand out, it hardly is an ominous harbinger of things to come. This is because Garcia has done an incredible job pounding the strike zone with an improved cutter that has induced ground balls for an astounding 71.2 percent of his collected outs, alleviating any fear of his on-the-surface scary .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Kudos to those who have learned from Duncan’s magic (Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Joel Pineiro, Matt Morris, etc.) and stole Garcia off the waiver wire early in the year.

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The entire 2010 MLB season in a nutshell

We’re only ten days in the 2010 season, but many things have become abundantly clear. Everything from Gold Gloves to Pennants has crossed my mind lately, and I address them in turn.

1. Albert Pujols owns your face, melts it, puts it on a burger made from ground Zambrano taco meat, and eats it while banging your mom. It is impossible for him to not win the MVP. Bank on it.

2. I don’t care if Matt Holliday bats .270 this year, as long as he hits 30 HR’s and drives in 80 RBI’s, managers will fear him *just* enough to force them to play Russian Roulette (i.e. pitch to Pujols) nearly every time through the lineup, save the few instances when the only base runner is on 2nd.

3. The three division winners in the NL, without question, will be the Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants, in order of obviousness. And the Wild Card is destined to be a two-team race between the Dodgers and some TBD NL East team (not the Mets or Nationals, obviously).

4. Not coincidentally, those three clubs also have pitching staffs that are far above and beyond any other team in the NL. I mean it’s not even close. If you took away the “Ace” from each of those three clubs, they’d still have the best starting rotations in the NL.

5. You could make the argument that the NL Central is the weakest division in MLB. I won’t make that argument myself, but I’m just sayin’, someone else could…

6. I know nothing about the AL other than (a) the Yankees are odds-on favorites to win the AL by a factor of ten, (b) Ozzie Guillen is my hero, and (c) I hope this Neftali Feliz guy stays far, far away from the NL unless he’s wearing a Cardinals uniform… that guy is sick.

7. NL Gold Glove predictions thus far:

C – Y. Molina
P – Waino
1B – Pujols
2B – TBD
SS – B. Ryan
3B – R. Zimmerman
OF – M. Bourne, C. Rasmus, TBD

I may be going out on a limb giving it to Rasmus this early in his career, but I’ll be damned if he’s not Top 3 in the NL. And if Brendon Ryan gets snubbed again, those voters can suck it. He’s the White Wizard. An unfortunate moniker since it basically screams KKK. But tough shit. That’s what I’m calling him from now on. Ozzie would get it.

8. Joe Mauer and the Twinkies will miss the playoffs this year, in spite of his lofty contract and that fancy new ballpark.

9. Relief pitchers across the NL are just terrible. The Cardinals’ RHRP roster gives me diarrhea whenever I see it, and most other clubs are just as bad. I realize that no great pitcher wants to be the 7th or 8th inning guy, but for the love of Jebus these guys blow. Surely there’s some Latino fireballers trapped in a hut somewhere that would sacrifice a herd of goats for the chance to play in the big leagues.

10. And the Cy Young Award goes to… Roy Halladay. It has too, right? Coming from the AL East, facing DL’s instead of Pitchers… this has to feel like a cakewalk to him. Lincecum can’t possibly 3-peat, and Waino and Carp are destined to steal each others’ votes unless one of them has an “off year.” I’m going with Halladay at even money.

11. Cardinals in 6 over the Yankees.

Other miscellanea

1. How much longer is the NL Central going to remain MLB’s only 6-team division, and how is it fair to any other division that the AL West only has 4 teams? This is possibly the most glaring example of bureaucratic nonsense in all of sports. Solution: Move Houston to the NL West, move Colorado to the AL West. Done. And. Done.

2. I don’t understand why, in a city that lives and breathes baseball and Busch Stadium, it is so freakin’ hard to develop Ballpark Village. Those fucknuts in Wrigley basically have Bourbon Street in their backyard and they don’t even know what is going on half the time. Somebody with some $$$ needs to step up and get that ball rolling. Honestly, it could just be a bunch of Imo’s, LC’s, and tchotchke Irish bar clones wrapped around the neighborhood and it would kill.

3. I can’t stand Rick Sutcliff. He may be the most irritating announcer I’ve ever listened to.

4. MLB Umpires could not be more inconsistent, bad, and impossible to work with. It is officially embarrassing to watch them call games. You now that episode of South Park where the Whales made sitcom plots out of floating balls? Yeah, it’s like that. Just throw a pitch and ask the resident monkey to throw poo at the red or green picture to determine if it was a strike.

5. What’s up with the off-days in the middle of a series? How dumb and inconvenient is that for the away team?

6. I hear the NBA playoffs are on now. You know, just in case you give a shit about that kind of thing.

7. I hear the NHL playoffs are on now too.  I had no idea that rugby made it to the U.S.

LB

NL Central predictions (per request)

Cardinals

Reds -10

Cubs -12

Brewers -14

Astros -14

Pirates -28

Knockin’ the dust off

LB is back, just in time for the ’10 MLB season. Cubs fans thought they were safe… ha. Don’t get too excited, though. I’m still a lazy bastard whose creative juices flow slower than Molina runs to first base. Nice to be back. Occasional updates to follow.

-LB

My balls are swollen, y tu?

I never claimed to be a prognosticator.  In fact, against the spread I’m a miserable 10 games under .500 in a NFL season that’s only 4 weeks in.  And as you can see from the below post, my MLB LDS predictions are already coming apart at the seams.  I guess that’s part of the beauty of sports – baseball in particular – you never truly know who’s going to win.  So much luck, so much error, so many inches in a game of the same. Why we try to guess is probably just to have something to write, argue about.  And I guess it’s fun, just not when you’re wrong.

On a personal note, I’d like to let the Baseball Gods know that I have paid whatever penance I owed and then some.  I’m officially out $250 bones and over 8 heartbreaking hours of life I’ll never get back.  I’ve endured indescribable torment from many of the country’s most undesirable denizens and done it all with the fucking swine flu.  So here’s the deal: give the Cardinals Game 3, let them earn Game 4, and if – oh dear God if – this miserable series comes back this cesspool of human existence, give them Game 5.  In other words, if the Cardinals are going to lose this series, let them do it at home in Game 4.  I don’t think that’s too much to ask. I can’t handle the thought of a sweep and I sure as shit can’t imagine suffering through losing Game 5.

Ok, good.  Now that me and the Gods are on the same page, let’s discuss some things.

1. Dodgers fans are the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet.  This is not disputable.  Sure, their average is brought down by legions of illiterate, ex-convict immigrants.  But considering that demographic makes up roughly 75% of the stadium attendance on any given night, I’d say it’s representative.

2. This lesson is for you, Senor Mexican Midget #1 sitting behind my right shoulder in Game 1. Funny: Jesus’ dad was Chris Carpenter.  Not funny: Jesus was a better Carpenter.  Your version – which you loved enough to yell no less than 20 times in 5 innings – is not funny for several reasons, the primary one being that it makes no sense.  Jesus, or “hey-zues” as you’d say, was not a carpenter.  I’m guessing that a lifetime of making fish out of goddamn rocks and curing blindness doesn’t leave one with much time to man a belt sander.  Haven’t you ever seen Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade?  Or maybe the shitty Telemundo version your familia bootlegged in Tijuana just had bad translation.  In any event, I’m sure heyzues would be thrilled to know that he got nailed to a fucking cross so you could vote “Yes” on Prop 8 on his behalf whilst confusing him with his boring father who apparently had ED since his wife was still a “virgin” when God knocked her up.

3. Dear Senor Mexican Midget #2: Rafael Furcal did not hit for a .667 average this season.  I know that’s what the scoreboard said in the 5th inning on Wednesday, but trust me, he didn’t.  Moving on.

4. I actually met and sat next to a KMOX couple last night.  What’s that?  Well, I’ve always heard that Cardinals Nation is so big and widespread due to KMOX’s broadcast reach, but I’ve never actually met anyone to verify said theory.  Sure enough, this lifelong SoCal couple had no ties to any State East of Arizona but have been cheering on the Redbirds for over 25 years.

5. Can someone please give Adam Wainwright a hug?  Poor guy gets screwed out of 20 Wins by a shitty bullpen, then earns a No Decision last night thanks to events that will not be repeated in detail on this blog.  Maybe a Cy Young award will make him feel better? Meh. I’d rather have another ring.

6. Going to away games by yourself is a questionable if not dangerous proposition in Los Angeles. But I noticed that anytime I was in conversation distance to a Dodger fan, nobody talked shit.  Moral of the story: if you are in this predicament and your team loses, find the most reasonable “fan of the game” type Dodger fan (any white male over 35 should do) and attempt to converse with him all the way to your car.  You may feel a little dirty afterward, but you probably just saved yourself from a knife fight for which you brought no knife.  If, however, you are in this predicament and your team wins, run up and down the mother fucking parking lot waving your hat while screaming “Pujols is God!” until the bitch empties out.  You still might get stabbed, but the torment of thousands of dejected assholes is worth the risk.

7. Can we get instant replay in baseball please?  Game 1 = Cardinals win if Ludwick’s bases clearing double is ruled (correctly) fair.

8. The Dodgers pitching sucks and the Cardinals are getting on base.  PLATE SOME GODDAMN RUNS!!!

9. (impromptu) I just got an email from dodgers.com saying NLCS tix go on sale at 1pm today.  I don’t know why my spam filter didn’t catch that.

10. Cardinals marketing needs to reevaluate it’s forays into new media.  Case in point (click to enlarge):

Back to my hole in the ground.

-LB

The sweet smell of October

Ladies and gentlemen, the MLB postseason is finally upon us.  Dust off those jackets and get ready for the big show.  2009 contains the usual cast of characters – Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Dodgers – hell, even the Rockies and Phillies are becoming mainstays in the playoffs.  And once again, we pay our (dis)respects to the Chicago Scrubs, who are spending the Fall eating sausages on the couch.  This is how it’s supposed to be.  Sub Rockies for Braves and you pretty much have the prototypical MLB postseason.  So how will this year play out?  Glad you asked.

League Division Series

Yankees v. Twins/Tigers

This is going to be a joke of a series.  Even if the Yankees get lousy pitching, they’ll still outscore the TBD AL Central champ in droves.  Yes, we’ve all seen them blow it in October against inferior teams slash teams with a 0-3 deficit *cough* but something feels different about them this year.  Dare I say that they are almost under the radar?  I don’t’ know how that could be possible in New York, but it’s almost as if people still think they are a team with major holes even though they put up 103 wins.  To me, they are the clear favorites and should plow through the AL.  Yankees in 4.

Angels v. Red Sox

Probably the most interesting match-up.  If you believe in regular season stats, this series should be a grinder destined for Game 5.  Evenly matched on paper, this should be a marathon – a waiting game to see which team’s 7th & 8th inning pitchers get sloppy.  But I for one don’t believe in regular season stats foretelling postseason performance.  The fact is Boston has better hitters, base runners, starters, and relievers.  And as much as I’d like to see Anaheim host the World Series this year, I think they get swept right out of the NLDS.  Red Sox in 3.

Phillies v. Rockies

The Rockies have an annoying habit of overachieving in the playoffs, but I think that trend ends now.  Much like another NL playoff team that will remain nameless, the Rockies are terrible against LHP.  Like, damn near worst in the NL.  So long as the Phillies pitchers can find the strike zone, it will be a short lived postseason for Colorado.   The Phillies lineup (which I believe to be tremendously overrated) doesn’t really even need to perform all that well.  A few runs each game against a very questionable Rockies pitching staff should be more than enough.  Phillies in 4.

Dodgers v. Cardinals

I just have a few brief things to say about this series.  First, the Cardinals own the Dodgers (and the entire NL West).  Second, you’ve got to be kidding if you think this series is coming back to St. Louis with the Cardinals any less than 2 games up.  Third, Tony La Russa would love nothing more than to shove a big one up Joe Torre’s ass to prove that he is the best crotchety old Italian baseball manager of all time.  There can be only one.  Lastly, I will be at Games 1 & 2 and will seriously get Tanya Harding on somebody if I need to.  And I can’t really afford the Game 5 tickets I bought, so I’m really hoping it doesn’t come down to that.  Cardinals in 4.

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LCS picks to follow.

-LB

Cleaning up a fat kid’s mess

Counterpoint fail

Captain Completely Worthless By September sent this in.  Ownage is in red.